TID navigates early snowmelt and below-average runoff projections for 2026

TID navigates early snowmelt and below-average runoff projections for 2026With projected April-through-July runoff well below historical averages, the Turlock Irrigation District is balancing early snowmelt with reservoir capacity limits and optimizing water deliveries through a successful pilot program.

April-through-July runoff is projected between 650,000 and 750,000 acre-feet, significantly below the 1.1 million acre-foot historical average.

Don Pedro reservoir is nearing its 830-foot limit, sitting at roughly 820.1 feet with only 125,000 acre-feet of remaining empty space.

April irrigation demand was lower than anticipated, with 33,000 acre-feet released from Turlock Lake compared to 54,000 acre-feet during the same period last year.

The district's TCC pilot project has successfully reduced series main spills by 69% compared to 2025 levels.

During its May 12, 2026, meeting, the Turlock Irrigation District (TID) Board of Directors reviewed the district's water supply outlook, highlighting the challenges of an early snowmelt and below-average runoff. Staff reported that year-to-date precipitation sits at 88.3% of average, but warm weather is rapidly depleting the remaining snowpack. The district expects April-through-July runoff to range between 650,000 and 750,000 acre-feet, well below the historical average of 1.1 million acre-feet. Despite the lower overall runoff, the accelerated snowmelt has pushed full natural flow receipts to 1.15 million acre-feet, trending above normal for May. This early influx of water is requiring careful management of the Don Pedro reservoir. Staff noted the reservoir is currently at 820.1 feet, leaving only 125,000 acre-feet of empty space before hitting the 830-foot limit. To manage storage over the season, the district has already made 270,000 acre-feet of flood control releases. Future river adjustments will depend heavily on whether upcoming irrigation demand meets historical levels. On the demand side, early irrigation season usage has been lower than projected. In April, TID released just over 33,000 acre-feet from Turlock Lake, which was 5,000 acre-feet below projections and significantly less than the 54,000 acre-feet released in April of the previous year. Surface water accounted for 91% of total water resources for the month, while groundwater drainage pumping remained low at 3,300 acre-feet. The district also reported significant efficiency gains from its TCC pilot project. The pilot area saw a 69% reduction in series main spills compared to 2025, dropping to just 94 acre-feet for the month. Furthermore, 96% of water requests within the pilot area were fulfilled on the exact day requested, an unprecedented service level for the district. The General Manager noted that staff will be holding a follow-up meeting with a "power user group" representing over 50% of the pilot's acreage to continue optimizing the system through the remainder of the irrigation season.