SFPUC draft 2025 water plan sparks backlash over demand forecasts and 8.5-year design drought

SFPUC draft 2025 water plan sparks backlash over demand forecasts and 8.5-year design droughtEnvironmental advocates and ratepayers are urging the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission to revise its long-term water models, arguing that inflated growth projections are driving unnecessary capital spending and justifying opposition to state environmental flows.

The draft 2025 Urban Water Management Plan projects combined retail and wholesale demand will rise 12% to 215 million gallons per day by 2050.

Advocates widely criticized the utility's reliance on an 8.5-year design drought, calling it a statistically improbable scenario that drives cyclical overbuilding.

Critics warned that overestimating demand is inflating costs, citing a recent spike in projected wholesale rate increases to over 7% annually and an anticipated $10 billion in capital projects.

The SFPUC anticipates up to a 43% reduction in water supplies if the Bay Delta Plan Amendment is implemented, a regulatory mandate the utility is currently fighting.

Wholesale representative BAWSCA voiced support for the plan, noting that missing the state's July 1 adoption deadline would jeopardize the utility's grant and loan eligibility.

The San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) is facing intense public scrutiny over its draft 2025 Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP), with environmental advocates accusing the utility of using inflated demand projections and an extreme drought scenario to justify unnecessary capital spending. During an April 14 presentation, UWMP project manager Jennifer Lee outlined the utility's 25-year outlook. While gross per capita water usage is expected to decrease 19% to 60 gallons per day by 2050, overall combined retail and wholesale demand is projected to rise 12% to 215 million gallons per day. Lee noted this increase is driven by local land-use projections anticipating a 34% rise in housing units and a 28% increase in jobs. However, the plan drew heavy fire during a public hearing from representatives of Sierra Club California, the Yosemite Rivers Alliance, and local ratepayers. Critics targeted the SFPUC's continued reliance on an 8.5-year "design drought" for its water shortage contingency planning. Advocates argued the scenario is statistically improbable—with one caller describing it as a 1-in-8,000-year event—and serves only to drive unnecessary infrastructure expansion. Commenters warned that overestimating long-term demand leads to stranded assets and spiraling costs. Advocates noted that projected wholesale water rate increases have recently jumped from around 1% to over 7.4% annually. Multiple speakers also referenced a newly identified $10 billion in capital improvement projects over the next 30 years, arguing that affordability for low-income families is at risk if capital plans are based on flawed growth models. The demand debate is closely tied to the state's Bay Delta Water Quality Control Plan. Lee noted that if the Bay Delta Plan Amendment is implemented, the SFPUC anticipates a supply reduction of up to 43%. Environmental groups argued that the utility is using the UWMP's inflated demand and extreme drought scenarios to manufacture a water shortage, thereby justifying its continued opposition to releasing more freshwater flows into the Tuolumne River ecosystem. Despite the pushback, the UWMP has the backing of the Bay Area Water Supply and Conservation Agency (BAWSCA), which represents the system's wholesale customers. BAWSCA representative Tom Smigiel voiced support for the draft, confirming it aligns with standardized demand studies and state requirements. Smigiel emphasized that failing to meet the state's July 1 submission deadline would render the SFPUC ineligible for vital state loans and grants. The SFPUC will accept public comments on the draft UWMP through April 20, with a final revised plan scheduled for adoption at the commission's June meeting.