SFPUC adopts 2025 Urban Water Management Plan amid debate over 8.5-year design drought

SFPUC adopts 2025 Urban Water Management Plan amid debate over 8.5-year design droughtThe San Francisco Public Utilities Commission has approved its long-term water planning document just days ahead of a state deadline, retaining a conservative drought model that projects up to 43% rationing during severe shortages.

The commission approved the plan to meet a July 1 statutory deadline, avoiding the loss of eligibility for state grants and loans.

The plan relies on an 8.5-year "design drought," prompting public criticism that the model is overly conservative and drives unnecessary capital spending.

Under the approved plan, the SFPUC projects 32% rationing in the first year of a five-year drought, escalating to 43% in subsequent years.

Commissioners and staff noted that the UWMP does not dictate water rates or approve specific capital projects, which are handled through separate financial planning processes.

The San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) has approved its 2025 Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP), meeting a looming July 1 state statutory deadline to ensure the utility remains eligible for state grants and loans. The approval followed significant public comment regarding the plan's underlying assumptions, particularly its reliance on an 8.5-year design drought and its demand projections. The UWMP is a state-mandated document that evaluates how the SFPUC will meet future water demands based on housing and employment growth projections provided by the city's planning department. A major point of contention during the hearing was the SFPUC's 8.5-year design drought model, which public commenters argued is far more extreme than the models used by neighboring utilities. According to public testimony, the conservative model results in the UWMP projecting up to 32% water rationing in the first year of a five-year drought, and 43% rationing in subsequent years if the Bay Delta Water Quality Control Plan is implemented. Critics warned the conservative approach could be used to justify unnecessary capital expenditures and rate increases. In response, utility officials clarified the purpose and limitations of the UWMP. Assistant General Manager for Water Steve Ritchie stated that the design drought is primarily used to inform the plan's water shortage contingency component, describing it as a "sideshow" to the plan's main objective of assessing how land-use projections align with water use. Commissioner Stacy emphasized that the UWMP is a state requirement designed to evaluate the maximum potential for growth, rather than serving as the SFPUC's primary capital planning document. She noted that decisions on infrastructure funding and rate setting are handled through separate financial and capital planning processes. Acknowledging the public pushback, President Arce highlighted the necessity of approving the plan to meet the state's July 1 submission deadline, noting that failing to do so would carry "very serious consequences for the ratepayers." The commission ultimately voted unanimously to adopt the plan, alongside the 2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan and the Affordable Housing Development Water Service Priority Policy.