California subsidence threatens 87% of State Water Project capacity without $4bn fix

California subsidence threatens 87% of State Water Project capacity without $4bn fixMetropolitan Water District officials are urging state and federal action to repair the California Aqueduct, warning that unchecked subsidence poses a singular threat to future water reliability.

Repairs to the San Luis Canal and California Aqueduct are estimated to cost $4 billion.

Department of Water Resources estimates delivery capability could drop by 87% by 2043 if subsidence is left unaddressed.

A projected $18 billion state budget deficit for 2026-27 complicates funding prospects.

Metropolitan leadership expressed disappointment that recent legislative requests yielded only $2 million for studies.

The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California has identified land subsidence along the State Water Project as a critical vulnerability requiring immediate financial intervention, estimating repair costs for the San Luis Canal and California Aqueduct at roughly $4 billion. This figure aligns with the scale of infrastructure remediation required statewide; for context, the Friant-Kern Canal faces funding needs exceeding $924 million, and the Department of Water Resources anticipates charging State Water Project contractors approximately $3 billion for California Aqueduct repairs alone. During a legislative update on December 8, a Metropolitan staff member reported that the Department of Water Resources estimates the State Water Project could see a reduction in water delivery capability of up to 87% by 2043 if subsidence is left unaddressed. Metropolitan is actively working with State Water Project and Central Valley Project contractors to seek state and federal funding to expedite these repairs, noting that the Delta-Mendota Canal also faces multi-million dollar mitigation costs. Board Chair Ortega described the issue as a "singular threat to our reliability." He noted that during the last legislative session, requests for substantial support resulted in only $2 million in funding, despite requests from contractors for significantly higher amounts to fund studies. Ortega emphasized the gravity of the situation, stating, "To think that we could lose that much water within under two decades and that it's hardly getting any money for studies... Our population has the major vulnerability in the state should that reliability be lost." The push for infrastructure funding faces significant headwinds in Sacramento. The Legislative Analyst's Office has projected an $18 billion deficit for the 2026-27 fiscal year, driven by constitutional spending requirements and prior obligations. Furthermore, a structural deficit of approximately $35 billion per year is projected to begin in the 2027-28 fiscal year. While voters approved a $10 billion climate bond in 2024, allocations for conveyance remain slow. Staff noted that of the $75 million available for regional conveyance in the bond, the legislature has allocated only $5 million so far. Metropolitan plans to prioritize funding for subsidence repairs in its upcoming legislative platform.