Arizona water officials warn of litigation as Colorado River negotiations stall ahead of federal deadline

Arizona water officials warn of litigation as Colorado River negotiations stall ahead of federal deadlineWith the 2007 Interim Guidelines set to expire, Central Arizona Project representatives told Pima County Supervisors that Upper Basin states have rejected conservation proposals, leaving the region facing uncertainty.

The Bureau of Reclamation has set a February 14, 2026, deadline for the seven basin states to reach an agreement.

Lower Basin states offered to cut 1.5 million acre-feet, while Upper Basin states have reportedly agreed to zero cuts.

Runoff efficiency is declining; 2025 saw 92% of average snowpack yield only 49% of average runoff.

Central Arizona agriculture has already seen CAP deliveries cut to near zero under current Tier 1 shortage conditions.

Central Arizona Project (CAP) officials issued a stark warning to the Pima County Board of Supervisors regarding the future of the region’s primary renewable water supply, citing a negotiation impasse between Colorado River Basin states. During a January 20, 2026, presentation, CAP Board Member Mark Taylor and Board Secretary Karen Cesare outlined the critical state of discussions to replace the 2007 Interim Guidelines, which are set to expire in December. Taylor, co-chair of the CAP Public Policy Committee, reported that negotiations between the Upper Basin (Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico) and Lower Basin (Arizona, California, Nevada) have stalled. According to Taylor, the Lower Basin states proposed a plan to conserve 1.5 million acre-feet of water during shortages, with Arizona shouldering approximately half of that burden. However, he stated that the Upper Basin has not reciprocated. "They have so far agreed to not save one acre-foot... or conserve one acre-foot," Taylor told the Board. The Bureau of Reclamation has issued a deadline of February 14 for the seven states to reach a consensus. Taylor warned that failure to agree could lead to federal intervention where the Bureau directs cuts, a scenario that could precipitate legal battles. "Either we come to some type of agreement or litigation is next, and nobody really wants litigation," Taylor said. The briefing highlighted the hydrological challenges exacerbating the political tension. Cesare presented data showing a decoupling of precipitation and reservoir inflow due to hot, dry soil conditions. She noted that while the 2025 snowpack was 92% of average, it resulted in only 49% of average runoff into the river system. The officials emphasized the stakes for Pima County, noting that the Tucson area is "almost 100% dependent" on CAP allocations. While municipal supplies remain prioritized, the agricultural sector in Central Arizona has already lost access to CAP water under the current Tier 1 shortage status. Taylor confirmed that agricultural deliveries in Pinal County and parts of Maricopa County have been cut to near zero, forcing farmers to rely on groundwater or fallow land. Supervisor Rex Scott inquired about the financial implications for ratepayers. Taylor clarified that the district currently utilizes a general ad valorem tax rate of 10 cents per $100 of assessed valuation, alongside an additional 4 cents per $100 for water storage. With taxes comprising about 10% of revenue and water rates covering the remainder, he noted these funds are critical for maintaining infrastructure that is now over 50 years old and for acquiring potential new water sources, such as desalination, though he cautioned that large-scale infrastructure projects could be 20 years away.