CAP braces for upstream releases as inflow forecasts plunge 500,000 acre-feet

CAP braces for upstream releases as inflow forecasts plunge 500,000 acre-feetWith Lake Powell projected to drop below critical elevations by March 2026, CAP officials are eyeing Drought Response Operations Agreement (DROA) releases from Flaming Gorge starting May 1.

Unregulated inflow projections for Water Year 2026 dropped by 500,000 acre-feet between December and January, sitting at just 68% of average.

Lake Powell has lost 31 feet of elevation over the last year, with forecasts showing it could dip below elevation 3,525 feet as early as March 2026.

Staff identified Flaming Gorge, Blue Mesa, and Navajo reservoirs as probable candidates for upstream releases to prop up Glen Canyon Dam operations.

Lake Mead remains relatively stable at elevation 1,063 feet, down only one foot year-on-year, driven by significant conservation efforts and reduced agricultural demand.

The Central Arizona Project (CAP) is preparing for a year of 'significant risk' regarding water supply, following a sharp decline in hydrological projections for the Colorado River Basin. During the January 8, 2026, Board of Directors meeting, staff reported that unregulated inflow projections for Water Year 2026 were adjusted downward by 500,000 acre-feet in just one month—falling from 7.04 million acre-feet (MAF) in December to 6.5 MAF in January. Colorado Programs Manager Vinita Kartha described the situation as an 'unhappy snow year,' noting that basin-wide snowpack is trending at only 73% of the median. The immediate impact is visible at Lake Powell, which currently sits at elevation 3,540 feet—a loss of 31 feet compared to the same time last year. Under minimum probable forecasts, the reservoir is expected to drop below elevation 3,525 feet by March 2026 and could breach 3,500 feet by August. To prevent Lake Powell from dropping below levels required for power generation, CAP officials are anticipating actions under the Drought Response Operations Agreement (DROA). Kartha indicated that the Bureau of Reclamation will likely begin consultations for additional releases from upstream Colorado River Storage Project units starting May 1. Flaming Gorge Reservoir, currently at 82% capacity with approximately 3 MAF in storage, was identified as the primary candidate for these releases. 'It is likely that Reclamation will start consulting and planning for additional releases from Flaming Gorge,' Kartha told the Board. While operational constraints and endangered species requirements exist, Kartha noted that past actions offer a roadmap. The 2022 DROA plan utilized 500,000 acre-feet from Flaming Gorge which, combined with reduced Glen Canyon Dam releases, bolstered Lake Powell's elevation by approximately 16 feet. Subsequent plans in 2023 aimed to fully recover these volumes to the upstream reservoir, demonstrating that higher volumes are operationally feasible. Blue Mesa and Navajo reservoirs were also cited as potential, though less likely, contributors due to their smaller capacities. Conversely, Lake Mead has shown temporary stability. The reservoir is currently at elevation 1,063 feet, only one foot lower than the previous year. Kartha attributed this to 'humongous amounts of conservation' by Lower Basin states and Mexico, alongside reduced demands from agricultural districts like the Imperial Irrigation District and Yuma area growers following recent precipitation. Since November, Lake Mead has gained nearly six feet in elevation due to these factors, though staff cautioned this stability may be temporary.